Exit Polls

If you've ever followed a close election on a television network, you've probably seen them announce the projected winner. This information likely came, in part, from an exit poll. While we may view the data exit polls provide as factual, exit poll data is preliminary information based on surveys of voters as they leave the polls.

The Definition of Exit Polls

Exit polls provide a "snapshot of the electorate" and measure public opinion by asking people how they voted immediately after casting their ballots. Exit polls are distinct from opinion polls in that they measure a voter's responsein real-timeafter the fact rather than predicting votes or opinions. Exit polls are useful because they offerthe public an early idea of which candidate is winning and how specificdemographicsvoted.Like other public opinion metrics, exit polls can shape future political campaigns, policies, and laws.

Exit Polls: Challenges

出口民调提出了许多挑战。因此,它是important to emphasize that exit polls aren't necessarily a reliable indicator of the winner of an election. Since data changes throughout Election Day, early predictions are often incorrect. As election day progresses and more data is gathered, exit poll data accuracy also increases. Only after the election can it be determined whether or not an exit poll accurately predicted the winners. Mail-in ballots and other factors further compromise the usefulness of exit polls as a predictive tool.

This section will highlight some of the main challenges with exit polling.

Exit Polls: Accuracy

Bias

The main intention of exit polls is to provide information about the success of an elected official's campaign, shed light on who voted for the winner, and provide insight into their support base, not determine election results. Furthermore, like most surveys, exit polls can result in participant bias — when survey data becomes skewed as it relies too heavily on information collected from a similar subset of voters sharing similardemographics.

COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic also has complicated exit polling. In 2020, fewer people voted in person, as more voted remotely by mail. As a result, there were fewer voters to conduct exit polls with. Additionally, the 2020 election witnessed a record number of mail-in votes being cast because of the pandemic. In many states, these votes were not counted until days later, making it difficult to make early predictions of election winners.

Methodology

There are doubts about the quality of data obtained in exit polls.Five-Thirty-Eight statistician Nate Silver批评民调being less accurate than other opinion polls. He also pointed out that while exit polls are supposed to represent voters equally, Democrats more commonly participate in exit polls leading to Democratic bias, further eroding the usefulness of exit polling. It is also important to remember that surveys have inherent flaws and don't 100% accurately represent the entire body of voters.

A polling location. Wikimedia commons. Photo by Mason Votes. CC-BY-2.0

History of Exit Polling

The history of exit polling spans several decades. In this section we will highlight the evolution of exit polling and retail how the procedure has grown increasingly sophisticated over the years.

1960s and 1970s

The United States first used exit polling in the 1960s. Political and media groups wanted to better understand voterdemographicsand uncover any variables that might connected to why voters chose certain candidates. The use of exit polls increased in the 1970s and have been employed regularly during elections ever since to help gain insight into voters' decision-making processes.

The 1980s

在1980年的总统大选,美国全国广播公司(NBC)退出使用poll data to declare Ronald Reagan the winner over incumbent Jimmy Carter. This sparked great controversy because the polls hadn't yet closed when the winner was announced. In the aftermath of this incident, a congressional hearing was held. Media outlets then agreed to forego announcing the election winners until all the polls closed.

The 1990s - Present

During the 1990s, media outlets and the Associated Press created the Voter News Service. This organization enabled the media to access more accurate exit poll information without receiving duplicate reports.

Controversy struck again during the infamous 2000 Presidential election, during which Al Gore's loss was misconstrued by the Voter News Service. They mistakenly announced Gore as the winner over George H. W. Bush. That same evening, the announcement was made that Bush had won. Later, the Voter News Service teeter-tottered again saying the presidential winner was undetermined.

The Voter News Service disbanded in 2002. The National Election Pool, a new polling consortium, was created in 2003, in partnership with mass media outlets. Some mass media networks have left the group since that time. The National Election Pool employs Edison Research to carry out exit polls.